Cyclone Montha: The Impending Fury – A Comprehensive Update on India's Latest Bay of Bengal Storm (October 26, 2025)

Posted by: WeatherWatch India | Date: October 26, 2025 | Category: Weather Alerts & Disasters

Hello, fellow weather enthusiasts and residents of India's eastern coast! If you're in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, or even the neighboring states, you've probably felt that familiar chill in the air – not from the retreating monsoon, but from the ominous whispers of a brewing storm. As of today, October 26, 2025, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is sounding the alarm on Cyclone Montha, the season's first major cyclonic disturbance in the Bay of Bengal. Named "Montha" – a term inspired by the resilient spirit of coastal communities (as per the World Meteorological Organization's naming conventions) – this system is poised to escalate rapidly, threatening lives, livelihoods, and landscapes.

In this in-depth blog, we'll dive into everything you need to know: from its formation and projected path to intensity forecasts, potential impacts, official warnings, and essential safety tips. Stay informed, stay safe – because in the face of nature's wrath, knowledge is your best shelter. Let's break it down step by step.

The Genesis: How Cyclone Montha Came to Be

Cyclone Montha didn't appear out of thin air; it's the evolution of a low-pressure area that has been simmering over the southeast Bay of Bengal since mid-October. According to IMD's latest bulletin, a depression formed on October 25, 2025, fueled by warm sea surface temperatures (around 29-30°C) and favorable atmospheric conditions like low wind shear. By this evening (October 26), it's expected to intensify into a deep depression, marking the official birth of the cyclonic storm.

• Current Status (as of 5:30 PM IST, October 26): Centered approximately 450 km southeast of Chennai, the system is moving northwestwards at 10-12 kmph. Early satellite imagery shows a well-defined low-level circulation with increasing convective activity – a classic sign of rapid strengthening.
• Naming Trivia: "Montha" was contributed by Sri Lanka to the WMO/ESCAP panel's cyclone naming list, symbolizing strength and endurance. It's the second named storm of the 2025 post-monsoon season, following the earlier Cyclone Shakti that brushed Maharashtra and Gujarat earlier this month.

This isn't just another squall; IMD models predict it could rival some of the fiercer storms we've seen in recent years, like Yaas (2021) or Fani (2019), though its exact ferocity remains under watch.

Track and Timeline: Where It's Heading and When

Cyclone Montha's path is a northwestward arc, curving slightly towards the Andhra Pradesh coast – a route that's all too familiar for veteran storm-watchers in the region. Here's the blow-by-blow forecast based on IMD's ensemble models (GFS, ECMWF, and IMD's own WRF):

Date/Time	Intensity	Location	Movement	Key Milestones
Oct 26 Evening	Deep Depression	400 km ESE of Visakhapatnam	NW at 12 kmph	Intensification begins; winds 50-60 kmph.
Oct 27 Morning	Cyclonic Storm (CS)	300 km E of Kakinada	NNW at 10 kmph	Named "Montha"; gusts up to 70 kmph.
Oct 27 Evening	Severe Cyclonic Storm (SCS)	150 km ESE of Kakinada	NNW at 8 kmph	Peak strength; winds 90-100 kmph, gusts 110 kmph.
Oct 28 Morning	SCS (Peak)	Off Kakinada Coast	NNE at 5-7 kmph	Landfall imminent: Between Kakinada and Yanam (Godavari Delta), around 8-10 AM IST.
Oct 28 Afternoon	Weakening CS	Inland over East Godavari District	NE at 10 kmph	Post-landfall dissipation over Telangana/Chhattisgarh.
Oct 29+	Remnants	Scattered showers in interior Odisha	Variable	Low-level circulation merges with monsoon trough.

The landfall zone is critically narrow: a 50-km stretch along the Andhra coast, with Kakinada port and the Godavari wetlands in the crosshairs. Uncertainty lingers – a slight westward shift could spare AP but hammer Odisha harder, while an eastward jog might intensify offshore before striking.

Intensity Forecast: How Fierce Will It Get?

IMD classifies cyclones on a scale from Depression (winds <62 kmph) to Super Cyclonic Storm (>222 kmph). Montha is on track for Severe Cyclonic Storm (SCS) status, with sustained winds of 89-117 kmph – Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, capable of uprooting trees, damaging thatched roofs, and flooding low-lying areas.

• Wind Speeds: Expect 40-50 kmph gales along the coasts from October 27, escalating to 90-100 kmph (with gusts to 120 kmph) near the center by landfall. Squally winds could disrupt shipping in the Bay, prompting advisories for fishermen to return to shore immediately.
• Storm Surge: A 1-2 meter rise in sea levels along AP and north TN coasts, potentially inundating beaches, ports, and coastal roads. Chennai's Marina Beach and Visakhapatnam harbor are on alert.
• Rapid Intensification Risk: Warm waters (SST >28°C) and a moist southwest monsoon flow could supercharge it, but cooler upper-air temperatures might cap growth. IMD's confidence: 80% for SCS, 40% for Very Severe (118-157 kmph).

Impacts: Rain, Floods, and Beyond

The real heartbreak of cyclones like Montha isn't always the wind – it's the water. Heavy rainfall is the headline act here, with IMD forecasting extremely heavy downpours (115-204 mm in 24 hours) across multiple states. Here's the regional breakdown:

Andhra Pradesh (Epicenter)

• Rainfall: Very heavy (64-115 mm) to extremely heavy in coastal districts (East/West Godavari, Krishna, Guntur) from Oct 27-29.
• Impacts: Urban flooding in Vijayawada and Rajahmundry; damage to Kharif crops like paddy and cotton (already harvested prematurely in some areas). Power outages and roadblocks likely.
• Vulnerable Spots: Kakinada, Yanam – expect evacuations of 50,000+ from low-lying villages.

Odisha (Northern Flank)

• Rainfall: Heavy to very heavy (7-64 mm daily) statewide Oct 27-29, with isolated extremely heavy falls in southern districts (Ganjam, Puri, Khurda).
• Impacts: Farmers in a frenzy, rushing to harvest unripe paddy amid fears of lodging and rot. Puri's beaches closed for rituals; Chilika Lake areas at flood risk.
• Human Angle: Over 10,000 cyclone shelters activated; Special Relief Commissioner monitoring 24/7.

Tamil Nadu & Puducherry (Southern Edge)

• Rainfall: Heavy spells in northern TN (Chennai, Tiruvallur, Cuddalore) today (Oct 26) and tomorrow, tapering off.
• Impacts: Waterlogging in Chennai's IT corridors; Adyar and Cooum rivers swelling. Airports on yellow alert for flight delays.

Ripple Effects

• Telangana & Chhattisgarh: Scattered heavy rain Oct 28-30, easing drought but risking flash floods in Hyderabad and Raipur.
• Agriculture Hit: An estimated 20-30% crop loss in coastal belts; fisheries sector grounded for 72 hours.
• Economy: Ports like Chennai and Visakhapatnam halting operations; insurance claims could top ₹5,000 crore.

Official Warnings and Government Response

IMD's color-coded alerts are flashing red and orange:

State/Region	Alert Level	Duration	Key Advisory
Coastal AP	Red (Extremely Heavy Rain)	Oct 27-28	Evacuate vulnerable areas; avoid travel.
Southern Odisha	Orange (Heavy Rain)	Oct 27-29	Secure livestock; harvest crops early.
North TN	Yellow (Heavy Rain)	Oct 26-27	Monitor urban flooding; school holidays in Chennai.
Fishermen (Bay of Bengal)	Avoid Sea	Until Oct 29	Total suspension of operations.

• Evacuations: AP govt targeting 1 lakh people; Odisha's SRC has mobilized NDRF teams.
• Helplines: AP Disaster Management: 1070; Odisha: 0674-2397777; TN: 1077.
• Real-Time Tracking: Follow IMD's cyclone page or apps like Windy/IMD Mobile for live radar.

Preparation Tips: Bracing for the Blast

Don't wait for the roar – act now:

1. Secure Your Home: Board windows, trim loose branches, stock 3-5 days' essentials (water, meds, batteries).
2. Evacuate Smartly: If in red zones, head to shelters; use govt buses, not personal vehicles.
3. Stay Connected: Charge devices; download offline maps. Avoid rumors – stick to IMD/NDMA.
4. Health First: Boiled water only; watch for vector-borne diseases post-flood.
5. Farmers' Hack: Use tarps for harvested crops; move cattle to higher ground.

For kids and families: Turn it into a "storm storytime" with board games indoors – resilience starts young!